在汽车电动化发展过程中，电池技术创新起到了主体作用。正是因为电池革命，推动了汽车革命。

　　新能源汽车正处于高速增长的通道。今年上半年，我国新能源汽车销量实现115%的增长，市场占有量达到21.6%。整体来看，全行业已经开始从量变进入到质变阶段。一些国际汽车巨头纷纷发布停售燃油车的时间表，部分国内车企也提出到2025年全面停售燃油车的计划。在创新方面，2021年，我国汽车专利公开量为32万件，其中新能源汽车、智能网联汽车专利占比达43.4%。

　　种种迹象表明，汽车产业格局正在发生重大变化。新能源汽车正在从过去作为产业转型的先锋力量，进一步发展成为汽车产业创新发展的主导性力量。这种趋势是不可逆的，并呈现加速发展的态势。

　　电池革命推动汽车革命

　　在汽车电动化发展过程中，电池技术创新起到了主体作用。正是因为电池革命，推动了汽车革命。2011年主流动力电池比能量仅在100瓦时/千克左右、系统成本为4元/瓦时，电池占到了整车成本的一半以上。到2021年，动力电池技术指标发生重大改变，单体比能量达到300瓦时/千克，系统成本降到1元/瓦时以内，电池占整车成本降低到1/3左右。10年前，日本、韩国电池公司占市场主导地位，现在中国已经进入了第一梯队，2021年中国有6家电池企业市场规模进入全球前十，更是出现了宁德时代、比亚迪等世界级电池公司，中国电池企业开始走出国门，在海外建厂、进入国际供应链体系。过去我们国家主要是电池集成，现在形成了从材料研发、电池生产、回收利用到设备支撑的全球产业链最全、规模最大的动力电池产业体系，正极、负极、电解液和隔膜四大原材料基本摆脱进口依赖，锂电设备国产化率也已经达到90%以上，其中关键工序的装备国产化率达到80%以上。在这期间，电动汽车性价比快速提升，其中续驶里程从过去的100多公里发展到目前600-800公里甚至更高，部分车型成本相对燃油车开始具备竞争力，过去担心的安全、充电等问题也不断改善，电池产业发展对电动汽车被市场接受起到了关键性的作用。

　　同时，电池革命未来也将推动能源革命进程。未来的汽车，将是能源互联网体系中的一个个单元，是存储和消纳间歇性可再生能源的强大载体。新能源汽车可通过有序充电、车网互动、换电、退役电池储能等方式对高比例可再生电力系统的灵活性资源形成补充，解决以风电、光伏为代表的可再生能源发电受季节、气象和地域条件影响的不连续性和不稳定的问题，支撑能源体系转型。据估算，2040年中国大概会有3亿辆电动车，如果每辆车平均是65度电，3亿辆车可以装200亿度电，通过V2G及有序充电灵活性调节，将满足海量可再生能源发电的调峰需求。在某种程度上，电池成了一种新的“能源”。

　　持续推动电池革命的几个重要问题

　　1、加快布局下一代电池。我国电池产业在上一阶段取得了不错的成绩，但需注意到美国、日本、韩国、欧洲正在加大对下一代电池的支持，我国依然存在因技术变革而导致被甩掉的风险。如美国计划到2030年实现固态电池和锂金属电池规模化量产；日本计划到2030年实现全固态电池量产；韩国将在2023-2028年投入3066亿韩元，争取提前实现固态电池、锂硫电池、锂金属电池的商业化应用；欧盟委员会已批准向参与电池项目的7个成员国提供32亿欧元援助，用以支持电池技术研究和项目创新。从全球主要国家或地区的发展规划看，2030年是关键节点，预计2030年前后固态电池、锂硫电池等下一代电池都将大规模进入市场。当前，我国应加大对下一代电池的研发投入，完善新技术产业链环节，并寻求适宜的应用场景以推动技术落地和迭代。

　　2、紧盯电池原始创新。锂电池技术起源于欧美，之后日韩将锂电池产品化，中国实现了锂电池工业化成熟应用。虽然目前欧美企业想要在现有格局下去挑战中日韩三国巨头电池企业的地位有一定难度，但动力电池技术并非完美，仍有很大的发展空间，欧美的基础研究能力强，极有条件涌现大量颠覆性创新。我国应该由生产引领向基础创新领域延伸，加强化学、物理、材料等基础研究能力建设。同时，随着动力电池向TWh时代的迈进，也要高度关注电池制造技术和制造工艺创新，提高良品率、降低生产成本。

　　3、重视国内电池产能水平快速扩张带来的风险。2021年以来，各动力电池企业纷纷进行产能扩张。据不完全统计，2022年一季度国内动力电池新投建项目近30个，规划产能超过800GWh，合计总投资超过3000亿元。上产能本质上是需求驱动，尤其是优势企业有优势产品，急于巩固市场地位。令人比较担心的是产能扩张带来的资源紧张、恶性生产、重复建设问题。尤其是与地方高额投资补贴互动绑定但明显缺乏技术优势和市场竞争力的产能扩张，不论是对企业还是地方政府，都存在较大风险。

　　4、电池必须率先实现自身绿色化。当前动力电池产业链是电动汽车全生命周期碳排放主要来源之一，电池生产碳排放一般占车辆全生命周期总排放量的20%左右，电池产业低碳化发展是必然趋势。欧盟《新电池法规》通过对电池碳足迹的声明、分级及限额要求逐步构建起“碳壁垒”，未来我国动力电池企业若要顺利出海欧洲，需要产业链上下游企业协力降低产品碳足迹。因此，我国有必要通过构建动力电池低碳管理体系和行动指南，促进动力电池从资源开采、材料制造、电池生产、回收利用等全产业链实现低碳化发展，提高我国产业链企业国际竞争力。

　　5、加紧“电池护照”相关标准制定，掌握国际话语权。为提高动力电池全生命周期数据透明度，有效追踪电池含量及碳足迹等信息，欧洲相关企业和组织正计划在近些年推出“电池护照”。若未来广泛推广“电池护照”，制定标准是关键。目前我国拥有较完整且具国际竞争力的动力电池全产业链，应积极参与并主导“电池护照”相关标准的制定。一方面，企业越早参与标准制定，越能够更好把握未来发展方向，提前布局。另一方面，能够更好促进我国动力电池产业链企业参与国际竞争，提高国际话语权。政策层面，尽快完善我国动力电池全生命周期碳足迹核算相关标准体系，并推进国际互认。行业层面，重视碳足迹盘查相关人才培养，加强国际交流，开展相关数据平台建设。企业层面，加强环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）信息的披露与实践。

　　6、重视上游资源战略地位并积极布局。我国动力电池产业链在冶炼、电池材料、电池加工等环节优势明显，但核心上游资源储量有限且对外依存度高。其中锂资源储量占全球的6%左右，但禀赋较差、开发成本高，对外依存度超过70%；镍和钴资源储量均仅占全球的2%左右，对外依存度更是长期在80%以上。近年来，我国政府和企业虽然加大了对海外相关矿产资源的收购布局，但欧美大型跨国巨头企业长期间接掌握大量优质锂、钴、镍矿产资源，一旦在全球形成国家层面的资源战，将加大我国企业资源获取成本，降低我国动力电池产品成本竞争力。建议将动力电池上游关键资源纳入战略资源考量，加大相关资源的勘探和开发力度，在资源配置、财政收入、重大项目、矿业用地等方面加强引导和差别化管理。大力支持企业在全球布局锂、镍、钴等资源，加强对企业在海外稀缺资源收并购中的政策扶持力度。

　　7、加快推进动力电池回收利用产业化。2018年我国动力电池开始进入退役高峰期，2021年退役量超过30GWh，预计到2025年退役量将超过100GWh。从资源循环利用、环境保护以及经济效益角度考虑，加快关键材料再利用迫在眉睫。目前欧盟电池法规已经对电池活性材料中再生原材料的含量提出了要求，到2035年回收的锂、镍、钴在活性材料中的最小份额不低于10%、12%和20%。我国也应加快建立新电池生产中回收材料使用率的管理体系，既可以使资源能够高效循环利用，又可以催生新产业，据测算2030年我国动力电池回收规模将超过1000亿元。同时，要加强梯次利用和再生利用关键技术研发，通过技术创新提高回收经济性；支持在电池设计、制造时就将电池回收的便利性考虑进来，减少安全隐患；鼓励利用现有社会资源，实现退役电池的就近安全处理。在关注回收的同时，也要高度重视电池修复技术进步，电池修复技术对提高电池使用寿命意义重大。

　　8、鼓励电池运营模式创新。电池资产运营管理为当下电动汽车购买门槛高、保值率低、电池回收难等问题提供了新的解决思路。通过车电分离模式，首先能够降低电动汽车初始购置成本，5-10万的A级车也将实现低于燃油车的购置价格；其次电动汽车的残值率有望改善，目前残值率偏低的主要原因是动力电池技术进步以及电池衰减带来的整车贬值，实现车电分离后，整车部分残值理论上将与燃油车相同；最后有利于动力电池全生命周期管理，车电分离模式下，动力电池产权归属于电池资产管理公司，一方面能够在专业公司的管理、维护下提高电池使用寿命，另一方面能够解决动力电池回收难的问题，并对退役电池进行统一的梯次利用和再生利用。

What changes are urgently needed for the power battery, known as the "heart" of new energy vehicles

In the development of vehicle electrification, battery technology innovation has played a major role. It is precisely because of the battery revolution that the automobile revolution has been promoted.

New energy vehicles are in a high-speed growth channel. In the first half of this year, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country increased by 115%, and the market share reached 21.6%. On the whole, the whole industry has begun to enter the stage of qualitative change from quantitative change. Some international auto giants have released timetables for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles, and some domestic auto companies have also proposed plans to completely stop selling fuel vehicles by 2025. In terms of innovation, in 2021, the number of disclosed automobile patents in my country will be 320,000, of which patents for new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles will account for 43.4%.

There are various signs that the pattern of the auto industry is undergoing major changes. New energy vehicles are evolving from being a pioneer in industrial transformation in the past to becoming a leading force in the innovation and development of the auto industry. This trend is irreversible and is accelerating.

The battery revolution drives the car revolution

In the development of vehicle electrification, battery technology innovation has played a major role. It is precisely because of the battery revolution that the automobile revolution has been promoted. In 2011, the specific energy of mainstream power batteries was only about 100 Wh/kg, the system cost was 4 yuan/Wh, and the battery accounted for more than half of the vehicle cost. By 2021, the technical indicators of power batteries will undergo major changes. The specific energy of a single unit will reach 300 Wh/kg, the system cost will be reduced to less than 1 yuan/Wh, and the battery cost will be reduced to about 1/3 of the entire vehicle. 10 years ago, Japanese and Korean battery companies dominated the market, and now China has entered the first echelon. In 2021, 6 battery companies in China will enter the world's top ten in terms of market size, and there are world-class batteries such as CATL and BYD. Companies, Chinese battery companies have begun to go abroad, build factories overseas, and enter the international supply chain system. In the past, our country mainly focused on battery integration. Now, we have formed the most complete and largest power battery industry system in the world, from material research and development, battery production, recycling to equipment support. The four major raw materials of positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm are basically Getting rid of import dependence, the localization rate of lithium battery equipment has reached more than 90%, and the localization rate of equipment in key processes has reached more than 80%. During this period, the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles has rapidly improved. The cruising range has grown from more than 100 kilometers in the past to 600-800 kilometers or even higher at present. The cost of some models has become competitive with fuel vehicles. In the past, concerns about safety, charging and other issues It has also continued to improve, and the development of the battery industry has played a key role in the acceptance of electric vehicles by the market.

At the same time, the battery revolution will also promote the energy revolution in the future. The car of the future will be a unit in the energy internet system and a powerful carrier for storing and consuming intermittent renewable energy. New energy vehicles can supplement the flexible resources of a high-proportion renewable power system through orderly charging, vehicle-network interaction, battery swapping, and decommissioning battery energy storage, so as to solve the seasonal dependence of renewable energy power generation represented by wind power and photovoltaics. , the discontinuity and instability of the impact of meteorological and geographical conditions, supporting the transformation of the energy system. It is estimated that there will be 300 million electric vehicles in China in 2040. If each vehicle has an average of 65 kWh of electricity, the 300 million vehicles can be equipped with 20 billion kWh of electricity. Through V2G and orderly charging flexibility adjustment, it will meet the needs of a large number of available electric vehicles. Peak shaving demand for renewable energy power generation. To a certain extent, the battery has become a new "energy source".

Several important issues that continue to drive the battery revolution

1. Accelerate the layout of next-generation batteries. my country's battery industry has achieved good results in the last stage, but it should be noted that the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Europe are increasing their support for next-generation batteries, and my country still has the risk of being dumped due to technological changes. For example, the United States plans to achieve large-scale mass production of solid-state batteries and lithium metal batteries by 2030; Japan plans to achieve mass production of all-solid-state batteries by 2030; South Korea will invest 306.6 billion won in 2023-2028, striving to achieve solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries ahead of schedule Commercial application of batteries and lithium metal batteries; the European Commission has approved the provision of 3.2 billion euros of aid to seven member states participating in battery projects to support battery technology research and project innovation. Judging from the development plans of major countries or regions in the world, 2030 is a key node. It is expected that next-generation batteries such as solid-state batteries and lithium-sulfur batteries will enter the market on a large scale around 2030. At present, my country should increase investment in research and development of next-generation batteries, improve the links of the new technology industry chain, and seek suitable application scenarios to promote technology implementation and iteration.

2. Keep an eye on the original innovation of batteries. Lithium battery technology originated in Europe and the United States. After that, Japan and South Korea commercialized lithium batteries, and China realized the mature application of lithium batteries in industrialization. Although it is difficult for European and American companies to challenge the status of the giant battery companies of China, Japan and South Korea in the current situation, the power battery technology is not perfect, and there is still a lot of room for development. Europe and the United States have strong basic research capabilities and are extremely qualified There is a lot of disruptive innovation. Our country should extend from production to basic innovation, and strengthen the building of basic research capabilities in chemistry, physics, and materials. At the same time, as the power battery moves towards the TWh era, we must also pay close attention to the innovation of battery manufacturing technology and manufacturing process to improve the yield and reduce production costs.

3. Pay attention to the risks brought by the rapid expansion of domestic battery production capacity. Since 2021, various power battery companies have expanded their production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, there will be nearly 30 new power battery projects in China, with a planned production capacity of more than 800GWh and a total investment of more than 300 billion yuan. The upper production capacity is essentially demand-driven, especially the advantageous companies have advantageous products and are eager to consolidate their market positions. What is more worrying is the shortage of resources, vicious production and duplication of construction caused by capacity expansion. In particular, capacity expansion that is interactively bound with high local investment subsidies but obviously lacks technological advantages and market competitiveness, poses great risks to both enterprises and local governments.

4. The battery must take the lead in realizing its own greening. The current power battery industry chain is one of the main sources of carbon emissions in the entire life cycle of electric vehicles. Carbon emissions from battery production generally account for about 20% of the total emissions in the entire life cycle of vehicles. The low-carbon development of the battery industry is an inevitable trend. The EU's "New Battery Regulations" gradually builds a "carbon barrier" through the declaration, classification and quota requirements for the carbon footprint of batteries. In the future, if my country's power battery companies want to go overseas to Europe, upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain need to work together to reduce the carbon footprint of their products. Therefore, it is necessary for my country to build a low-carbon management system and action guidelines for power batteries to promote low-carbon development of the entire industrial chain of power batteries from resource extraction, material manufacturing, battery production, recycling, etc., and improve the international competitiveness of my country's industrial chain enterprises.

5. Step up the formulation of relevant standards for "battery passports", and have the right to speak internationally. In order to improve the transparency of power battery life cycle data and effectively track information such as battery content and carbon footprint, relevant European companies and organizations are planning to launch "battery passports" in recent years. If the "battery passport" is widely promoted in the future, setting standards is the key. At present, my country has a relatively complete and internationally competitive power battery industry chain, and should actively participate in and lead the formulation of relevant standards for "battery passports". On the one hand, the sooner an enterprise participates in the formulation of standards, the better it will be able to grasp the future development direction and make arrangements in advance. On the other hand, it can better promote the participation of my country's power battery industry chain enterprises in international competition and improve the international voice. At the policy level, improve the relevant standard system of carbon footprint accounting for the full life cycle of my country's power batteries as soon as possible, and promote international mutual recognition. At the industry level, it attaches great importance to the cultivation of talents related to carbon footprint inspection, strengthens international exchanges, and develops the construction of relevant data platforms. At the corporate level, strengthen the disclosure and practice of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) information.

6. Pay attention to the strategic position of upstream resources and actively deploy them. my country's power battery industry chain has obvious advantages in smelting, battery materials, battery processing and other links, but the core upstream resource reserves are limited and the external dependence is high. Among them, lithium resources and reserves account for about 6% of the world's total, but the endowment is poor, the development cost is high, and the external dependence exceeds 70%; nickel and cobalt resources only account for about 2% of the world's reserves, and the external dependence is 80% for a long time. above. In recent years, although the Chinese government and enterprises have increased the acquisition layout of overseas related mineral resources, large multinational giants in Europe and the United States have long-term indirect control of a large number of high-quality lithium, cobalt, and nickel mineral resources. Increase the cost of obtaining resources for Chinese enterprises and reduce the cost competitiveness of my country's power battery products. It is recommended to include the upstream key resources of power batteries into strategic resource considerations, increase the exploration and development of related resources, and strengthen guidance and differentiated management in resource allocation, fiscal revenue, major projects, and mining land. Vigorously support enterprises in the global deployment of lithium, nickel, cobalt and other resources, and strengthen policy support for enterprises in the acquisition of overseas scarce resources.

7. Accelerate the industrialization of power battery recycling and utilization. In 2018, my country's power batteries began to enter the peak period of decommissioning. In 2021, the amount of decommissioning will exceed 30GWh. From the perspective of resource recycling, environmental protection and economic benefits, it is imminent to speed up the reuse of key materials. At present, the EU battery regulations have put forward requirements on the content of recycled raw materials in battery active materials. By 2035, the minimum share of recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt in active materials should not be less than 10%, 12% and 20%. my country should also speed up the establishment of a management system for the utilization rate of recycled materials in the production of new batteries, which can not only enable efficient recycling of resources, but also give birth to new industries. It is estimated that the scale of power battery recycling in my country will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2030. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the research and development of key technologies for cascade utilization and recycling, and improve recycling economy through technological innovation; support the convenience of battery recycling in battery design and manufacturing to reduce potential safety hazards; encourage the use of existing social resources to achieve Nearest safe disposal of retired batteries. While paying attention to recycling, we must also attach great importance to the advancement of battery repair technology, which is of great significance to improving battery life.

8. Encourage innovation in battery operation models. Battery asset operation management provides a new solution to the current problems of electric vehicles, such as high purchase threshold, low value preservation rate, and difficulty in battery recycling. Through the vehicle-electricity separation model, the initial purchase cost of electric vehicles can be reduced first, and the purchase price of A-class vehicles of 50,000-100,000 will also be lower than the purchase price of fuel vehicles; secondly, the residual value rate of electric vehicles is expected to improve, and the current residual value rate is low The main reason is the technical progress of the power battery and the depreciation of the whole vehicle brought about by the decay of the battery. After the separation of the vehicle and electricity, the residual value of the whole vehicle will theoretically be the same as that of the fuel vehicle; in the end, it is beneficial to the full life cycle management of the power battery and the separation of the vehicle and electricity. In this mode, the property rights of the power battery belong to the battery asset management company. On the one hand, it can improve the service life of the battery under the management and maintenance of the professional company. and recycling.